Federer in trouble?!?

Is Roger Federer still on track to get in shape for the French Open or is he running out of time to find his form to put himself in position to win the Grand Slam this year?

He did not play well in Indian Wells and Miami and then decided to skip the Monte Carlo 1000 event (like many other top ten players…) and get some more practice in before the long stretch of tournaments until Wimbledon.

But now he lost his first round match in Rome against Ernst Gulbis and he has only the tournaments in Estoril and Madrid left to get in shape and more importantly gain some confidence for his title defense at Roland Garros.

His match against Gulbis was really shaky and he played with not much confidence. He also did not look really fit to me. The way he was sliding and running when he had to play defense, showed that he does not have top fitness yet. He lost his balance many times and that is very unusual for a Roger Federer. So, I see that there is a lot more work to be done on the practice courts, before he will be able to defend his title in Paris.

But I still don’t think that Federer fans should worry too much, because it has been like this many times before, no matter what Fed tells us in his press conferences.

He just does not focus too much on the events besides the Grand Slams. He is just trying to pace himself for the big events, and history showed us that he is a master at doing exactly this. He knows exactly how much he has to do to get where he wants and I am certain that he will be in top shape when the French open start.

I think he will at least reach the final in Estoril and then tries to defend his title in Madrid. Then he has one week rest before the French, which he will use for a last training tune up to find his form.

If he can beat a Rafa Nadal in Paris is still doubtful for me, because Rafa might gain so much confidence by the start of the French that he will be very hard to beat, even though he might be a little more tired than Roger.

Hardy Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

ATP-1000 Rome Preview by Hartmut Hesse

Today I want to take a look at the draw for the 2^nd ATP 1000 clay-court tournament of the season.

The first Masters series event was won by Rafa Nadal, but 5 of the top 10 players were not in the draw because of different reasons. Federer felt that the tournament comes to early for him in his preparation for the French and some other big names were injured (Del Potro, Davydenko, Soderling) or did not feel like playing on clay at all (Roddick).

But now at least Federer is ready to make his start on clay for the 2010 season and if both win, he will meet Nadal in the semis’ already.

But besides this interesting semi-final match up, there are some other very exciting possibilities in the draw. First of all Federer might face Baghdatis (if Marcos beats Gulbis for a 5^th time in a row…) in his opener and he can take revenge for his loss in Indian Wells. In the Quarters Roger might face Cilic, who was not as convincing on clay yet, as at the Australian Open in the beginning of the year. But it will be a good indication for Cilic’s potential to reach the top 5 some day, and a tough test for Federer. But Cilic will also have to beat a tough clay-court player like Almagro to get to the quarters.

Nadals section of the draw is also very interesting, since his opener will be against Kohlschreiber, then maybe Montanes and in the quarters either red hot Berdych, who like to play against Nadal, especially in his current form. Or a rematch of last years’ French Open disaster, with Robin Soderling, who just proved that his clay-court abilities were no fluke, when he reached the final in Barcelona. So, a tough draw section for Nadal, and he will be happy that he made a wise decision and did not play in Barcelona. He will be rested for these matches and he needs to, if he wants to be still fresh, when he plays Federer in the semi-final.

The bottom half of the draw might see a quarterfinal between Novak Djokovic, who is seeded No. 2 and Barcelona winner Fernando Verdasco. But Verdasco played the final in Monte Carlo already and I don’t think his legs are still fresh enough to make another splash in Rome, even though he has a pretty good draw, with only Youzhny in his way. But so does Novak and I see him winning against Verdasco this time.

In the other section there will be a rematch between De Bakker and Tsonga in the second round and De Bakker has to prove if his great performance in Barcelona was not just a one-hit-wonder. Tsonga will be eager to take revenge and it will be an exciting match for sure. Murray runs into Ferrer again and has to prove that he is one of the contenders for the French Open. I doubt it and see Ferrer winning against him in the round of 16. Even though he also played 2 events already, I still see him with enough left in the tank to reach the semi-final, where he will face Djokovic.

So, here is my prediction:

It’s Nadal over Federer and Ferrer over Djokovic. So, another Spanish winner in the 3 big clay-court event of the year. Nadal will take the title, because the other Spanish players just have too much respect for Nadal to beat him in a final.

This win will give Nadal even more confidence and make him the clear favorite for the French Open, even if Federer should win in Madrid again like last year.

Let’s see if I am right… ;)

Hardy Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

Barcelona Analysis

The first two clay court tournaments are finished and as I expected the winners carry a Spanish passport. First it was a dominant Nadal who lost only 14 games on his way to a 6^th straight title in Monte Carlo. And now it is Fernando Verdasco, the finalist in Monaco, who took the title in Barcelona.

Even though some of the big names (Federer, Del Potro, Davydenko, Roddick) did not play in these two tournaments, the first two clay court tournaments gave us a good indication, who will be among the contenders at the French Open this year. I see 4 names that are very likely to go deep into the draw at Roland Garros. First of al it is Nadal, who gained confidence over the last tournaments and has to be considered a clear favorite for the French Open. Then it is Fernando Verdasco, who reached two finals on clay and won one of them. He might be ready for a big win against a top 4 player at the French. And then it is David Ferrer, who always fights like a warrior on clay and deserves to reach a semi-final at the French. Nr. 4 is Robin Soderling, who does not have the typical clay-court game (and is the only one without a Spanish passport…), but proved last year already that he can dominate players with his hard an flat ground-strokes, even on the clay-courts at Roland Garros.

But there is another new name, who made a strong impression at Barcelona. Thiemo De Bakker, from the Netherlands might be the new kid on the block in this year’s clay-court season. He beat Tsonga in Barcelona and will improve his ranking a lot with his semi-final appearance in Barcelona. Let’s see if he can keep his momentum in Rome.

But it will be even more interesting to see if Federer can find his form in Rome. He will run into Nadal in the semi finals already and if he and Nadal really get there, we will see how good Nadals win in Monte Carlo really was. And if Roger is able to get back into shape by the push of a button.

Hartmut Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

Miami Sony Ericsson Open Analysis

The first part of the hard-court season is finished with the finals of the Miami Open and the pros are preparing for the clay-court season already.

The tournament in Miami came up some surprise upsets for some of the big names and it also came up with a new name and some very familiar one’s.

Thomas Berdych is for sure the biggest surprise in this tournament. Not only that he beat Federer in a very close match going the distance and into a third set tiebreaker, by fighting off a match-point, he also kept going all the way to the final. This was a new Berdych, we saw in Miami. He was always considered as one of the next big stars in tennis and Nike gave him a huge contract at an early age. But he could never quite live up to his expectations. The one thing fans and experts were missing in his game, was the fighting spirit and the determination that a true champion needs. Too many matches he lost when it got into a deciding set or when the conditions were not easy and comfortable.

But here in Miami a different Thomas Berdych showed up. He grinded out the rallys from the baseline, he was much more patient with his shot selection and most of all he never gave up. If he can keep playing with the same attitude, he will finally silence all his critics and become a top 10 player soon. But it will not be easy to carry the momentum into the next tournaments, since the is a surface change from hard-courts to clay-courts. But his newly found qualities will help him even more on a surface like clay. So, it will be exciting to see how he will do in Monte Carlo when all the clay-court specialists show up.

Not only with him getting better and better, the men’s ranking is getting more interesting, because all the top 10 players a moving closer to each other. Soderling, Tsonga and Roddick are pushing the to 6 players and the top 6 did not do very well in the last to ATP-1000 events. With Daydenko and Del Potro injured and Djokovic and Murray not at their top level, it was only Nadal who showed some signs of form. Even Federer lost some points and opened the door for the other guys (Roger has many points to defend in the next months).

But besides Berdych, it was Roddick who showed the best form and (even with lucky draws in both tournaments) was the talk of the hard-court season so far. We will see how he can carry the form into the clay-court tournaments, if he plays many at all. But it should give him confidence to try a few more clay-court events this year, especially since his game became much more consistent and he lost some weight. This will all help him on the European clay-courts.

On the woman’s side there were not too many surprises even though the top 2 players of the tournament went out before the quarterfinals already. Kuznetsova was injured and for new world No. 2, Caroline Wozniacki, Justine Henin was too big a bite, even though she won a set against the former world number one. So, it wasn’t really a surprise to see Henin and Clijsters in the semi finals. And again they showed their fans a thriller that was decided in a tiebreaker again. Just like in the beginning of the year in Australia. And it was the same outcome as well. Clijsters won again and then went on to take the title from a slightly injured Venus Williams 6:2, 6:1! With this win Clisters stormed back into the top 10 and for sure, Justine will follow her soon, especially considering the fact that we will be playing on clay in a few weeks. Serena was not playing in the tournament and if she is not getting back into shape soon, she will lose her No. 1 ranking. Probably to Kim Clijsters, if she decides to play a few more tournaments.

I think it is great to have the two Belgium champions back on the woman’s tour and I can’t wait to have one of the on the top spot of the rankings again.

But for sure we will see a big shuffle in both rankings, the woman’s and the men’s.

Exciting weeks are ahead of us and on top of that, I think the most interesting matches are played on clay, anyways.

Let’s see what happens and who will shine on the new surface!?

Hartmut Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

What's wrong with Roger?!?

So Federer lost to Thomas Berdych 4:6, 7:6, 6:7 in the round of 16 in Miami last night. A shock for most of his fans and the tennis fans in Miami, who were looking forward to a possible final Federer – Nadal. And ‘Fed’ lost to Marcos Baghdatis in the third round of last weeks Indian Wells tournament already (in straight sets). How can that happen?!?

Is Federer struggling again with his form … and his forehand … and his overhead … and his backhand?

No, He isn’t!

He lost 6:8 in the third set of the tiebreak, had one matchpoint and had 10 break chances during the whole match, compared to only 4 for Berdych and he won as many points in total as the Zcech No. 1, as well. So, it was a really close match that he lost. Unlike the early exits of Djokovic and Murray, Federer was very close to winning, but just came up short a tiny little bit in the end.

On top of that Djokovic and Murray have been the two finalists of last years event, and they will lose a lot of points due to their early departures. Federer reached only the semi-final last year and has only 360 points to defend. The only player left in the draw, who can be dangerous for his No. 1 ranking spot, is Nadal and he is more than 4000 points behind Federer. So, no worries for ‘Fed’ in that department.

And this is one of the two things Roger is really concerned about. He wants to break Pete Sampras’ record of total weeks at No. 1 and total year-end finishes as No. 1.

If you have some money to spend, go ahead and place a bet on him reaching these goals this year. The only problem is that you won’t get much money back, if you are right…

His other big goal for this year and main focus is winning a Grand Slam. And in order to do that he needs to have enough energy a, motivation and focus during the last 3 Grand Slam events of this year. So, he cannot go 100% all year long. A big mistake Nadal has made over the past years. Of course both players have very different attitudes and work ethics. And they have to have (at least Nadal), because god did not give both the same amount of talent. Nadal always has to work hard to win his matches. But Federer can win with less effort most of the times, and that is the reason why he is not injured so often. And it is also the reason why he suffers some surprise early exits in some tournaments that are not so important for him. But it does not happen when he really care, as his Grand Slam record clearly show. Federer always tries to save as much energy as possible and win his matches with ease, because he is always aiming for the title. And that means a lot of matches in a row. And if he is not aiming for the title, but for the big titles (grand Slams) he is trying to save even more energy.

So, there is nothing to worry about for the Federer fans. He thinks French Open already and I think he will have a great chance this year to get the Grand Slam.

And then the Federer fans have reason to worry, because if he can accomplish that, he will also break the other records for the No. 1 ranking, and then he has nothing to play for anymore besides exercise and fun. And I don’t know if he will have enough motivation to travel around the globe to exercise… His wife might ask him to play with his daughters on the court next to the house instead…

Hartmut Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

Men’s Favorites Drop Out Early In Miami

Like in many other years already, a lot of top players drop out of the men’s draw at an early stage. In other years the strong winds at Key Biscayne had a big influence on many frustrated players unable to control their shots. But this year the surprise upsets were real surprises, since the winds have not been strong at all.

And the player who benefits the most from these early exits is Andy Roddick again, who had a good draw at Indian Wells already, with Tipsarevic, Monfils, Federer and Murray going out of the tournament before meeting Roddick.

Now he avoids potential match-ups with Blake, Djokovic, Robredo, Querrey and Ljubicic before he would reach the semi-final with Nadal or Tsonga. On the top half of the draw it is Soderling and Federer who still have a tough draw, but will not have to face Andy Murray anymore.

Nadal has probably the toughest draw, with Nalbandian in the 3^{rd round} (he won in 3 sets last night) and many other top players to come before he can reach a potential semi-final against Roddick. Even though difficult opponents like Isner and Karlovic fell to Ferrer and Ferrero. But Ferrer in the next round and Ferrero or tsonga in the quarters will also give him a hard time for sure.

With Federer waiting for Berdych and Cilic or Verdasco, before he will meet probably Soderling in the Semis, who will have to battle Gonzales, Youzhny and wawrinka, it looks like the safest pick for the semi final is Andy Roddick.

I think it will come down to Tsonga and Roddick in the bottom half and Roger and Soderling in the top half. In the final we will see Roger and Tsonga, for sure an exciting ending of the hard court season, before the guys will grind it out on clay. If Fed wins this one, he will secure his No. 1 spot for a long time and go with good hopes into the clay court season aiming for a grand slam this year.

I think he can do it and it will all depend on Nadal and performance on clay this year.

Hartmut Hesse

Professional Tennis Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Pros

Miami ATP Masters 1000 2010 preview

24.03.2010

This years Miami Masters 1000 event offers a very interesting draw with some exciting potential match-ups throughout the whole tournament.

First of all there is Roger Federer, who might run into Berdych first and then into rising star Marin Cilic. Cilic, coached by former Becker coach Bob Brett, showed his potential at the Australian Open already and might by inspired by fellow countryman, Ivan Ljubicic, who won last weeks event in Indian Wells. This is for or sure an interesting match-up and a real test for Cilic to check out his future potential. If he can beat Roger here, he will certainly do the next step in his career.

In the semi-final, Roger could face (if he beats Cilic…) either Murray or Soderling, which will be either this years Australian Open final rematch or last years French Open final rematch. Soderling also collected his first win against Federer in their last match, even though it was just during a show tournament prior to the Australian Open. But Soderling stepped up his game since last years ATP-Finals in London. These would be for sure two great semi-final match-ups. And the quarterfinal between Soderling and Murray will also be very interesting since it is a rematch of last weeks Indian Wells Quarterfinal, which Murray lost in straight sets, 1:6, 6:7. The last time Murray has beaten Soderling was in 2006 and if Murray wants to come closer to Rogers No. one spot, he needs to show up in the masters 1000 events.

Even though Roger I think that Roger does not care much about any other event besides the Grand Slams, I believe that his talent and potential is so big, that he will even win these matches in second gear and will reach the final, where he will probably meet Novak Djokovic. The Djoker is his biggest rival for the No. 1 spot, and he will see his opportunities this year, to make his dream reality. So this final will be an indication if he can contest the top ranking spot this year. By reaching the final Roger might be satisfied already though, so, I see it an open match. But with his talent, Roger will always be a good pick, of course.

In the bottom half are also some very interesting match-ups. With the return of David Nalbandian from his hip injury, there is a dangerous unseeded floater in the draw. And he will run into Rafael Nadal in the 3^rd round, a player Nalbandian has not only beaten, but crushed, a few times already. Nalbandian, who I see as the second most talented player on the ATP-Tour, behind Roger, is able to take Nadals high top-spin shot on the rise without any problems. And this takes all the danger away from Nadals game, which is anyways not nearly as good as last year. So, I see a win for Nalbandian, who should come back to his old form in this tournament, and who will be motivated to get back into the top 10. If he really beats Nadal, he will have enough confidence and will also beat potential opponents, Karlovic and Isner. Djokovic might be to tough for him in the semi-finals but, you never know with David.

But there are two more very exciting match-ups in the bottom half of the draw. In the round of 16 we might see a rematch of the Indian Wells final, between Roddick and Ljubicic. Roddick will be eager to make up for his lost final, but I think Ljubicic will pull it off again, which might be the start for Roddicks departure from the top 10…

Against Djokovic I see his energy fading and his great run in the last two weeks come to an end. Even though he has beaten the Djoker last week, I think that Novak will be too competitive to let this happen again.

If I am right, we won’t see many changes in the top-10 rankings after this event, since Murray beat Djokovic in the finals last year and Nadal lost in the quarters. But if the draw developes like I predicted, this might be a hint of what is to come in this years season. So far the only change would be Nadal regaining the No. 3 spot from Murray again, even if he loses in the 3^rd round to Nalbandian. With Davydenko and Del Potro out due to injuries and a fortunate draw in Indian Wells, Nadal will be able to stay in the top 4 going into the clay court season. Before the start of this year, I was not sure at all, if he will be still ahead of Davydenko and Del Potro at the start of the French Open. Since both players had not nearly as many points to defend, as Nadal. But now Rafa can be a bit more relaxed and look forward to stand on his favorite surface again, soon. But stiil I see problems for Nadal this year and Del Potro, Davydenko, Cilic, Soderling and hopefully Nalbandian on the rise. Tough oponents to fight off for Nadal.

Let’ see if I am right…

Hartmut Hesse